Europe is stagnating
Global footwear consumption is expected to grow by 8.4% by 2025. The projection comes from the latest Business Conditions Survey, World Footwear’s expert survey. If the forecasts are confirmed, consumption is expected to grow significantly in Oceania (up by 25%), followed by Africa (up by 13.3%), Asia (up by 9.2%), and North America (up by 8.3%). A more modest increase is forecasted for South America (up by 3.2%), while Europe (up by 0.5%) is expected to stagnate.
Regarding the volume of footwear traded, the Business Conditions Survey indicates that 65.4% of respondents expect it to increase, and only 22.4% expect it to remain stable.
It is also worth noting the positive outlook for prices over the next six months, with the majority of respondents (36.4%) expecting prices to rise moderately, while only 14% expect prices to remain stable over the same period.
Despite this positive scenario, the footwear industry continues to face challenges concerning raw material and merchandise costs, as well as competition in its home markets.
"We expect 2025 to be a year of recovery for the footwear sector internationally”, says Paulo Gonçalves. However, the APICCAPS spokesman stresses that "there are still several signs of uncertainty”, especially on the European continent. "Companies must continue their efforts to find new markets”. He points out that "the American and Asian continents are expected to show the greatest growth potential this year”, justifying "the Portuguese industry’s increased focus on relevant markets such as the US, Korea and Japan”.
A year with positive signs
The latest figures show a positive, albeit moderate, performance in footwear trade, with growth in some key markets. Imports increased in five of the world’s top ten importing countries, including Spain (5.95%), Belgium (3.8%), the US (2.8%), the Netherlands (2.3%) and China (0.4%), indicating market stability. However, some countries recorded a slight decline, such as France (3.2%), a very important market for Portuguese footwear, and Italy (13.1%).
The IMF’s latest forecasts point to moderate but uneven growth across regions. Nevertheless, the latest data show that confidence among manufacturers and retailers continues to grow. Nearly 68% of respondents to this edition of the Business Conditions Survey expect the ‘health of their business’ to be strong (47.2%) or very strong (20.8%) over the next six months. On the other hand, only 7.5% expect their business prospects to be weak or very weak.
Respondents in Africa are the most optimistic about the growth of their businesses, in contrast to those in Europe, where the most negative scenarios are recorded.
There is a generally optimistic outlook for employment, with manufacturers more optimistic than retailers. Europeans are the most optimistic about employment growth, with 40% expecting an increase and 51% expecting employment to stabilise.
The main difficulties cited by the majority of respondents are the cost of raw materials or merchandise (42%), followed by competition on domestic markets (40%), insufficient demand on domestic markets (29%) and on international markets (25%). Customs duties (24%), labour problems (22%), financial difficulties (22%) and competition on international markets (22%) are also important.
According to the Business Conditions Survey, experts expect a significant increase in footwear sales in digital markets over the next three years. Forecasts for physical stores are more moderate, but remain positive.
According to those surveyed, 3D printing will have a significant impact on prototyping processes in the footwear industry. Most experts (52.2%) highlight its use in prototyping components such as soles or heels, while 43.9% see its importance in prototyping production tools such as moulds. On the other hand, 35.5% of respondents see the technology being used to prototype entire shoes.
The World Footwear Expert Panel received 107 valid responses from experts in Asia (49%), Africa (21%), Europe (18%), North America (6%), South America (5%) and Oceania (1%).